Snowfall, thunderstorm and wind. How meteorologists of the municipal economy complex work

What will the weather be like tomorrow? And on the weekend? Will winter be snowy? These are questions that almost everyone asks. Looking at the forecast, citizens decide what to go out in, whether to take an umbrella with them and whether to go for a walk. But for some services, the weather forecast is not just an assistant. Utilities receive operational data from their own meteorologists. In case of impending snowfall, heavy rain or strong wind, this information allows them to take immediate actions and reduce the consequences of bad weather to a minimum. Why the municipal economy complex need its own meteorologists, how they work and what they think about the weather in Moscow — in the mos.ru material.

To prevent the consequences

Meteorological unit of the Moscow municipal economy complex was created back in 1998. Then in June, the capital was nattered with a hurricane, when the wind speed reached 28 meters per second. After that, it was decided to create a special service in Moscow that would pay more attention to dangerous weather events and inform the specialists of the municipal services about them in advance.

Initially, weather forecasters worked in the structure of Roshydromet, and in 2015, the meteorological unit was created in the Avtomobilnye Dorogi State Budgetary Institution. In a small office with computers and maps of Moscow on the walls, specialists monitor the weather around the clock. They make a forecast for 48 hours, updating and correcting (if necessary) the data every three hours.

 

 

For their forecasts, forecasters use data from Roshydromet and information from their own sensor network. 50 weather stations have been installed in the city near highways and important social facilities. They measure air temperature and humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction, intensity and amount of precipitation. The data is transferred into a special system and processed by programs. Then forecasters make hydrodynamic models and make a forecast. By the way, programs can convert data and show infographics — weather on the Moscow map.

For their forecasts, forecasters use data from Roshydromet and information from their own sensor network. 50 weather stations have been installed in the city near highways and important social facilities. They measure air temperature and humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction, intensity and amount of precipitation. The data is transferred into a special system and processed by programs. Then forecasters make hydrodynamic models and make a forecast. By the way, programs can convert data and show infographics — weather on the Moscow map.

"In one city, the temperature differential can be up to 10 degrees. Let's say there is a low terrain in Butovo, it is always cooler there, and Balchug is on a hill and in the center, it is warmer there. It is even warmer near highways where there is heavy traffic," Igor Chernikov, a leading weather forecaster, says.

"Meteorology is the most accurate science, our forecasts are more accurate compared to others, for example, economic or medical. Meteorologists have so much data that they can give a 100 percent forecast for the next three hours and a 95 percent forecast for 48 hours. Further, the accuracy decreases, because we predict such natural phenomena that have not even been created yet," Elena Timakina added.

For example, forecasters calculated, using the collected data, that in the next five days there will be a cyclone that will determine the weather in Moscow. The cyclone will definitely occur, but the trajectory of its movement may change, and the weather will depend on it.

Anticyclone and flying gossamers

Weather forecasters are not bored to work in Moscow. There are temperature records in the city, and severe thunderstorms, and squally winds. For example, during the last snowfall, which was in February, a monthly precipitation norm fell in a couple of days. At the end of June this summer, the city was battered with heavy rains and thunderstorms, up to 40 millimeters of precipitation fell in a few hours.

This autumn, records for atmospheric pressure are being recorded in Moscow. Within a few days, the indicator reached 768-769 millimeters of mercury, but 748 millimeters is considered to be the norm for October. The thing is that the capital is in the center of an anticyclone, and this already means high pressure. According to forecasters, the anticyclone came from Scandinavia, it is also called blocking. That is why the dry, windless, sunny weather has been in the city for so long.

Forecasters call this period the golden autumn, according to them, it's too late for Indian summer. According to meteorological dictionaries, Indian summer also occurs due to an anticyclone. It is characterized by the same weather, but a little warmer. Another sign of it can be flying gossamers in the air, which are easy to notice on a quiet sunny day. This is how spiders move from place to place.

Zero crossing

The first frosts have already been in the capital, and at the beginning of the third decade of October there will be the first snow. This transition period, according to forecasters, is one of the most responsible in their work. It is important to record when icy condition of roads will appear in order to avoid dangerous situations on the roads. By the way, experts advise motorists to change summer tires to winter tires only in early November.

 

Now there is a tendency to equalize the average annual temperature. This is due to the melting of glaciers, which causes more precipitation. According to forecasters, the climate changes every 30 years and with it, the accepted norms change.

"What we see for sure is that over the years there has been more January precipitation. At the same time, it cannot be said that summer has become hotter. On the contrary, summers become cooler and winters warmer, the average annual temperature is leveled. The peaks of fluctuations may differ from year to year, this is an average characteristic," Elena Timakina clarifies.

Because of such climate changes, folk weather signs have also lost their relevance. For example, it cannot be said that cold January portends a dry and hot July, and October thunder — a snowless winter. Forecasters specify that thunderstorms in October are a very rare phenomenon. However, some short-term signs can be trusted even today.

"There is a sign: if the sunset is bright red, then tomorrow there will be a wind. This is justified by natural physical features. The fact is that the refraction of light, due to which the crimson effect is created, occurs due to increased pressure gradients. The next day, these gradients really come to the terrain along with the wind," Elena Timakina says.

On October 17, the meteorological unit of the Avtomobilnye Dorogy State Budgetary Institution, as well as other employees of the capital’s road industry, will celebrate a professional holiday — the Day of the Road Worker. The unit employs 13 people, and eight of them are weather forecasters. Over the past six years, with the help of accurate data, they have prepared more than 26 thousand forecasts for utilities, which helped to minimize the consequences of bad weather in Moscow.